PESA
PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25

PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25

English

Kenya’s economy has had a slow recovery from the most recent global economic shocks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Real GDP growth is projected to decrease to 5.0% in 2024, from 5.6% in 2023 before reaching an annual average growth rate of 6.0% for 2021 to 2023[1]. Economic growth has been driven by accommodation and food services; professional, admin and support services; and information and communication[2]. Inflation is projected to decrease to 5.1% in 2024, after reaching an annual average rate of 7.1% for 2021 to 2023. Inflation has been affected by wholesale and retail trade, public administration, and education prices[3].

PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25
PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25

The East African Community (EAC) macroeconomic convergence criteria aim to achieve macroeconomic stability, economic growth, and balanced development. The criteria focus on inflation rates, fiscal deficits, debt-to-GDP ratios, and the stability of exchange rates. SADC’s criteria include maintaining inflation rates below 8%, fiscal deficits below 3% of GDP, alongside a public debt ratio of under 50% of GDP[4]. In 2024, Kenya’s inflation levels are below the EAC benchmark at 5.1% due to lower food prices and a stronger KES*[5]. At these inflation levels, according to the rule of seventy, the purchasing power or value of the KES is halved every 13 years and 9 months[6]. Inflation is projected to increase to 5.2% in 2025 before reaching an annual average of 5.1% for 2025 to 2027. At these levels, inflation is expected to remain below the EAC benchmark. Kenya’s inflation is expected to moderate due to lower food inflation driven by improved supply from the ongoing harvests and favourable weather conditions, lower fuel prices, and a stable exchange rate in the medium-term[7]. Hence, according to the rule of seventy, this level of inflationary pressure would halve the purchasing power or value of the KES in the same period due to stable inflation levels. This highlights the importance for continuing improvements in the monetary policy framework to ensure effective transmission mechanisms for monetary policy and credible communication to align inflationary expectations with the monetary policy stance. However, Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate change shocks, especially floods and droughts, which might affect its external sector and public debt sustainability[8].

PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25
PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25

The Government of Kenya’s fiscal balance is above the EAC benchmark at -5.0% of GDP due to unpaid exchequer requests (carryovers) of KES 218.5 billion and the implementation of the Collective Bargaining Agreements which put pressure on the government expenditures[9]. At these fiscal balance levels, the Government of Kenya’s debt should increase in 2024. Public debt is projected to decrease to 69.9% of GDP in 2024, from 73.1% of GDP in 2023 after reaching an annual average of 69.7% of GDP for 2021 to 2023. At these levels, public debt remains above the EAC benchmark in 2024. Kenya’s fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to -4.0% of GDP for 2025 to 2027. Meanwhile, Kenya’s public debt is expected to increase to 72.4% of GDP in 2025 before reaching an annual average of 71.5% of GDP due to the downward revisions to economic growth in the medium-term. The FY2024/25 budget implementation was initially impeded by the withdrawal of the Finance Bill, 2024 and protests that led to a slowdown of economic activities leading to a weakening of the public debt position[10]. The Government of Kenya will need to revise fiscal consolidation and medium-term debt management strategy to reduce debt vulnerabilities while providing space for high-priority spending[11]. Kenya remains at a high risk of debt distress driven primarily by a weaker outlook for revenue mobilisation and continued underperformance in exports[12].

PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25
PESA Editorial on Kenya: 2H2024/25

In 2024, Kenya’s current account deficit is projected to widen to -USD 4.7 billion (approx. -4.1% of GDP), from -USD 4.3 billion in 2023 after reaching an annual average current account balance of -USD 5.3 billion (approx. -4.7% of GDP) for 2021 to 2023. The EAC’s macroeconomic convergence criteria do not have a benchmark for current account balances, but Kenya does not meet the external sector benchmark with respect to its foreign exchange reserves, which are projected at USD 8.2 billion (approx. 4.1 months’ import cover) in 2024[13]. The current account deficit is projected to narrow due to improved goods exports, driven by horticulture and tea exports, and strong growth in diaspora remittances inflows[14]. In the medium-term from 2025 to 2027, Kenya’s current account deficit is projected to widen slightly in nominal terms to -USD 4.8 billion (approx. -4.0% of GDP). The current account deficit is projected to narrow in relative terms due to the tighter monetary policy stance and flexible exchange rate, alongside reforms to attract foreign direct investment and enhance exports, which are expected to stabilise the current account deficit around 4% of GDP over the medium-term[15]. Kenya’s external sector position has improved due to the strong support from development partners, like the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund, and a flexible exchange rate that has helped to preserve foreign exchange reserves. However, Kenya’s vulnerability to climate change poses a significant downside risk that could affect the external sector and public debt sustainability over the medium-term.


[1] Data from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reflects real GDP growth of 4.5% for the year-to-date in 3Q2024, which suggests less than expected real GDP growth for 2024. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) projected real GDP growth of 4.6% for 2024. See https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[2] https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[3] https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[4] EAC’s primary macroeconomic convergence criteria requires phasing out of monetary financing and that member countries should maintain foreign exchange reserves of at least 4.5 months of import cover. See https://www.eac.int/index.php?option=com_documentmananger&task=download.document&file=bWFpbl9kb2N1bWVudHNfcGRmX0RsRXZaQ2NZbmV0a3l3a0JHTk9UVkRNRUFDIE1vbmV0YXJ5IFVuaW9uIFByb3RvY29s&counter=105.

[5] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[6] The Rule of 70 is a simple method to estimate how long it takes for a variable to double or halve, given its fixed annual growth rate or depreciation rate, by dividing 70 by the growth rate or depreciation rate percentage.

[7] https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/mpc_press_release/536717785_MPC%20Press%20Release%20-%20Meeting%20of%20December%205%202024.pdf.

[8] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[9] https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-Budget-Policy-Statement…pdf.

[10] https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-Budget-Policy-Statement…pdf.

[11] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[12] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[13] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

[14] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

[15] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

Français

L’économie kényane s’est lentement redressée après les derniers chocs économiques mondiaux causés par le conflit entre la Russie et l’Ukraine. La croissance du PIB réel devrait diminuer à 5,0 % en 2024, contre 5,6 % en 2023, avant d’atteindre un taux de croissance annuel moyen de 6,0 % de 2021 à 2023[1]. La croissance économique a été stimulée par les services d’hébergement et de restauration, les services professionnels, administratifs et de soutien, ainsi que l’information et la communication[2]. L’inflation devrait diminuer à 5,1 % en 2024, après avoir atteint un taux annuel moyen de 7,1 % de 2021 à 2023. L’inflation a été touchée par le commerce de gros et de détail, l’administration publique et les prix de l’éducation[3].

Éditorial de PESA sur le Kenya : 2S2024/25
Éditorial de PESA sur le Kenya : 2S2024/25

Les critères de convergence macroéconomique de la Communauté d’Afrique de l’Est (CAE) visent à atteindre la stabilité macroéconomique, la croissance économique et un développement équilibré. Les critères sont axés sur les taux d’inflation, les déficits budgétaires, les ratios dette/PIB et la stabilité des taux de change. Les critères de la SADC comprennent le maintien d’un taux d’inflation inférieur à 8 %, de déficits budgétaires inférieurs à 3 % du PIB, ainsi qu’un ratio de dette publique inférieur à 50 % du PIB[4]. En 2024, les niveaux d’inflation au Kenya sont inférieurs à ceux de la CAE, à 5,1 %, en raison de la baisse des prix des denrées alimentaires et du renforcement de la KES*[5]. À ces niveaux d’inflation, selon la règle des soixante-dix, le pouvoir d’achat ou la valeur du KES est divisé par deux tous les 13 ans et 9 mois[6]. L’inflation devrait augmenter pour atteindre 5,2 % en 2025 avant d’atteindre une moyenne annuelle de 5,1 % pour les années 2025 à 2027. À ces niveaux, l’inflation devrait rester inférieure à l’indice de référence de la CAE. L’inflation au Kenya devrait se modérer en raison de la baisse de l’inflation alimentaire due à l’amélioration de l’offre grâce aux récoltes en cours et aux conditions météorologiques favorables, à la baisse des prix du carburant et à la stabilité du taux de change à moyen terme[7]. Par conséquent, selon la règle des soixante-dix, ce niveau de pression inflationniste réduirait de moitié le pouvoir d’achat ou la valeur de la KES dans un délai de 13 ans et 9 mois. Cela souligne l’importance de continuer à améliorer le cadre de politique monétaire afin d’assurer des mécanismes efficaces de transmission de la politique monétaire et une communication crédible pour aligner les anticipations inflationnistes sur l’orientation de la politique monétaire. Cependant, le Kenya est très vulnérable aux chocs climatiques, en particulier aux inondations et aux sécheresses, qui pourraient affecter son secteur extérieur et la viabilité de sa dette publique[8].

Éditorial de PESA sur le Kenya : 2S2024/25
Éditorial de PESA sur le Kenya : 2S2024/25

Le solde budgétaire du gouvernement du Kenya est supérieur à la référence de la CAE à -5,0 % du PIB en raison de demandes de Trésor impayées (reports) de 218,5 milliards de KES et de la mise en œuvre des conventions collectives qui ont exercé une pression sur les dépenses publiques[9]. À ces niveaux d’équilibre budgétaire, la dette du gouvernement du Kenya devrait augmenter en 2024. La dette publique devrait diminuer à 69,9 % du PIB en 2024, contre 73,1 % du PIB en 2023, après avoir atteint une moyenne annuelle de 69,7 % du PIB pour la période 2021-2023. À ces niveaux, la dette publique reste supérieure à la référence de la CAE en 2024. Le déficit budgétaire du Kenya devrait se réduire à -4,0 % du PIB pour la période 2025-2027. Dans le même temps, la dette publique du Kenya devrait augmenter pour atteindre 72,4 % du PIB en 2025 avant d’atteindre une moyenne annuelle de 71,5 % du PIB en raison des révisions à la baisse de la croissance économique à moyen terme. L’exécution du budget de l’exercice 2024/25 a d’abord été entravée par le retrait du projet de loi de finances 2024 et des protestations qui ont conduit à un ralentissement des activités économiques conduisant à un affaiblissement de la dette publique[10]. Le gouvernement du Kenya devra réviser sa stratégie d’assainissement budgétaire et de gestion de la dette à moyen terme afin de réduire les vulnérabilités liées à la dette tout en laissant de la place pour des dépenses hautement prioritaires[11]. Le Kenya reste exposé à un risque élevé de surendettement, principalement en raison de l’assombrissement des perspectives de mobilisation des recettes et de la sous-performance persistante des exportations[12].

Éditorial de PESA sur le Kenya : 2S2024/25
Éditorial de PESA sur le Kenya : 2S2024/25

En 2024, le déficit de la balance courante du Kenya devrait se creuser à -USD 4,7 milliards (environ -4,1 % du PIB), contre -USD 4,3 milliards en 2023, après avoir atteint une balance courante moyenne annuelle de -USD 5,3 milliards (environ -4,7 % du PIB) pour la période 2021-2023. Les critères de convergence macroéconomique de la CAE n’ont pas de référence pour les balances courantes, mais le Kenya n’atteint pas le seuil du secteur extérieur en ce qui concerne ses réserves de change, qui devraient s’élever à USD 8,2 milliards (environ 4,1 mois de couverture des importations) en 2024[13]. Le déficit du compte courant devrait se réduire en raison de l’amélioration des exportations de biens, tirée par les exportations d’horticulture et de thé, et de la forte croissance des envois de fonds de la diaspora[14]. À moyen terme, de 2025 à 2027, le déficit de la balance courante du Kenya devrait se creuser légèrement en termes nominaux pour atteindre -USD 4,8 milliards (environ -4,0 % du PIB). Le déficit du compte courant devrait se réduire en termes relatifs en raison du resserrement de la politique monétaire et de la flexibilité du taux de change, ainsi que des réformes visant à attirer les investissements directs étrangers et à accroître les exportations, qui devraient stabiliser le déficit du compte courant autour de 4 % du PIB à moyen terme[15]. La position du secteur extérieur du Kenya s’est améliorée grâce au soutien ferme des partenaires de développement, tels que le Groupe de la Banque mondiale et le Fonds monétaire international, et à un taux de change flexible qui a contribué à préserver les réserves de change. Cependant, la vulnérabilité du Kenya au changement climatique pose un risque important de détérioration qui pourrait affecter le secteur extérieur et la viabilité de la dette publique à moyen terme.


[1] Les données du Bureau national des statistiques du Kenya (KNBS) reflètent une croissance du PIB réel de 4,5 % depuis le début de l’année au 3e trimestre 2024, ce qui suggère une croissance du PIB réel inférieure aux prévisions pour 2024. La Banque centrale du Kenya (CBK) a prévu une croissance du PIB réel de 4,6 % pour 2024. Voir https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[2] https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[3] https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[4] Le principal critère de convergence macroéconomique de la CAE exige l’élimination progressive du financement monétaire et le maintien par les pays membres de réserves de change d’au moins 4,5 mois de couverture des importations. Voir https://www.eac.int/index.php?option=com_documentmananger&task=download.document&file=bWFpbl9kb2N1bWVudHNfcGRmX0RsRXZaQ2NZbmV0a3l3a0JHTk9UVkRNRUFDIE1vbmV0YXJ5IFVuaW9uIFByb3RvY29s&counter=105.

[5] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[6] La règle de 70 est une méthode simple pour estimer le temps nécessaire pour qu’une variable double ou divise par deux, compte tenu de son taux de croissance annuel fixe ou de son taux d’amortissement, en divisant 70 par le pourcentage du taux de croissance ou du taux d’amortissement.

[7] https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/mpc_press_release/536717785_MPC%20Press%20Release%20-%20Meeting%20of%20December%205%202024.pdf.

[8] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[9] https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-Budget-Policy-Statement…pdf.

[10] https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-Budget-Policy-Statement…pdf.

[11] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[12] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[13] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

[14] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

[15] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

Português

A economia do Quénia tem tido uma recuperação lenta dos mais recentes choques económicos globais causados pelo conflito Rússia-Ucrânia. Projecta-se que o crescimento do PIB real diminua para 5.0% em 2024, de 5.6% em 2023, antes de atingir uma taxa média anual de crescimento de 6.0% em 2021 a 2023[1]. O crescimento económico foi impulsionado pelos serviços de alojamento e alimentação; serviços profissionais, administrativos e de apoio; e informação e comunicação[2]. A inflação deverá diminuir para 5.1% em 2024, depois de ter atingido uma taxa média anual de 7.1% entre 2021 e 2023. A inflação foi afectada pelo comércio grossista e retalhista, pela administração pública e pelos preços da educação[3].

Editorial da PESA sobre o Quénia: 2H2024/25
Editorial da PESA sobre o Quénia: 2H2024/25

Os critérios de convergência macroeconómica da Comunidade da África Oriental (EAC) visam alcançar a estabilidade macroeconómica, o crescimento económico e um desenvolvimento equilibrado. Os critérios focam-se nas taxas de inflação, nos défices orçamentais, nos rácios dívida/PIB e na estabilidade das taxas de câmbio. Os critérios da EAC incluem a manutenção das taxas de inflação abaixo dos 8%, os défices orçamentais abaixo dos 3% do PIB, a par de um rácio da dívida pública inferior a 50% do PIB[4]. Em 2024, os níveis de inflação do Quénia estão abaixo do valor de referência da EAC, em 5.1%, devido aos preços mais baixos dos alimentos e a um KES* mais forte[5]. Nestes níveis de inflação, de acordo com a regra dos setenta, o poder de compra ou o valor do KES é reduzido para metade a cada 13 anos e 9 meses[6]. Projecta-se que a inflação aumente para 5,2% em 2025, antes de atingir uma média anual de 5,1% entre 2025 e 2027. Nestes níveis, espera-se que a inflação permaneça abaixo do valor de referência da EAC. Espera-se que a inflação no Quénia registe uma moderação devido a uma inflação alimentar mais baixa, impulsionada pela melhoria da oferta resultante das colheitas em curso e pelas condições meteorológicas favoráveis, pelos preços mais baixos dos combustíveis e por uma taxa de câmbio estável a médio prazo[7]. Assim, de acordo com a regra dos setenta, este nível de pressão inflacionista reduziria para metade o poder de compra ou o valor do KES no prazo de 13 anos e 9 meses. Tal realça a importância de melhorias contínuas no quadro de política monetária, a fim de assegurar mecanismos de transmissão eficazes da política monetária e uma comunicação credível para alinhar as expectativas inflacionistas com a orientação da política monetária. No entanto, o Quénia é altamente vulnerável aos choques provocados pelas alterações climáticas, especialmente inundações e secas, que podem afectar o seu sector externo e a sustentabilidade da dívida pública[8].

Editorial da PESA sobre o Quénia: 2H2024/25
Editorial da PESA sobre o Quénia: 2H2024/25

O saldo orçamental do Governo do Quénia está acima do valor de referência da EAC em -5.0% do PIB devido a pedidos de reembolso não pagos (transições) de KES 218.5 mil milhões e à implementação dos Acordos Colectivos de Trabalho que pressionaram as despesas do governo[9]. Nestes níveis de equilíbrio orçamental, a dívida do Governo do Quénia deverá aumentar em 2024. Projecta-se que a dívida pública diminua para 69.9% do PIB em 2024, de 73.1% do PIB em 2023, depois de atingir uma média anual de 69.7% do PIB entre 2021 e 2023. Nestes níveis, a dívida pública permanece acima do valor de referência da EAC em 2024. Prevê-se que o défice orçamental do Quénia diminua para -4.0% do PIB entre 2025 e 2027. Entretanto, a dívida pública do Quénia deverá aumentar para 72.4% do PIB em 2025, antes de atingir uma média anual de 71.5% do PIB devido às revisões em baixa do crescimento económico a médio prazo. A execução orçamental do exercício de 2024/25 foi inicialmente dificultada pela retirada da Lei das Finanças de 2024 e por protestos que levaram a um abrandamento das actividades económicas, levando a um enfraquecimento da posição da dívida pública[10]. O Governo do Quénia terá de rever a consolidação orçamental e a estratégia de gestão da dívida a médio prazo para reduzir as vulnerabilidades da dívida, proporcionando simultaneamente espaço para despesas de alta prioridade[11]. O Quénia continua a correr um risco elevado de dificuldades de endividamento, devido principalmente a perspetivas mais fracas de mobilização de receitas e à continuação de um desempenho inferior das exportações[12].

Editorial da PESA sobre o Quénia: 2H2024/25
Editorial da PESA sobre o Quénia: 2H2024/25

Em 2024, projeta-se que o défice da balança corrente do Quénia aumente para -USD 4.7 mil milhões (aprox. -4.1% do PIB), de -USD 4.3 mil milhões em 2023, depois de ter atingido um saldo médio anual da balança corrente de -USD 5.3 mil milhões (aproximadamente -4.7% do PIB) entre 2021 e 2023. Os critérios de convergência macroeconómica da EAC não têm um valor de referência para os saldos da balança de transacções correntes, mas o Quénia não cumpre o valor de referência do sector externo no que diz respeito às suas reservas cambiais, que estão projectadas em USD 8.2 mil milhões (cerca de 4.1 meses de cobertura das importações) em 2024[13]. Projecta-se que o défice da balança corrente diminua devido à melhoria das exportações de bens, impulsionada pelas exportações de horticultura e chá, e ao forte crescimento dos fluxos de remessas da diáspora[14]. A médio prazo, de 2025 a 2027, prevê-se que o défice da balança corrente do Quénia aumente ligeiramente em termos nominais para -USD 4.8 mil milhões (aproximadamente -4.0% do PIB). Projecta-se que o défice da balança corrente diminua em termos relativos, devido a uma orientação mais restritiva da política monetária e a uma taxa de câmbio flexível, a par de reformas destinadas a atrair o investimento directo estrangeiro e a reforçar as exportações, que deverão estabilizar o défice da balança corrente em cerca de 4% do PIB a médio prazo[15]. A posição do Quénia no sector externo melhorou devido ao forte apoio dos parceiros de desenvolvimento, como o Grupo do Banco Mundial e o Fundo Monetário Internacional, e a uma taxa de câmbio flexível que ajudou a preservar as reservas cambiais. No entanto, a vulnerabilidade do Quénia às alterações climáticas representa um risco significativo de revisão em baixa que pode afectar o sector externo e a sustentabilidade da dívida pública a médio prazo.


[1] Os dados do Gabinete Nacional de Estatísticas do Quénia (KNBS) refletem um crescimento do PIB real de 4.5% no acumulado do ano no 3T2024, o que sugere um crescimento do PIB real inferior ao esperado para 2024. O Banco Central do Quênia (CBK) projectou um crescimento do PIB real de 4.6% para 2024. Ver https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[2] https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[3] https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Kenya-Quarterly-Gross-Domestic-Product-Third-Quarter-2024.pdf.

[4] Os principais critérios de convergência macroeconómica da EAC exigem a eliminação progressiva do financiamento monetário e que os países membros devem manter reservas cambiais de, pelo menos, 4.5 meses de cobertura das importações. Ver https://www.eac.int/index.php?option=com_documentmananger&task=download.document&file=bWFpbl9kb2N1bWVudHNfcGRmX0RsRXZaQ2NZbmV0a3l3a0JHTk9UVkRNRUFDIE1vbmV0YXJ5IFVuaW9uIFByb3RvY29s&counter=105.

[5] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[6] A Regra dos 70 é um método simples para estimar quanto tempo demora para uma variável duplicar ou reduzir para metade, dada a sua taxa de crescimento anual fixa ou taxa de depreciação, dividindo 70 pela taxa de crescimento ou percentagem da taxa de depreciação.

[7] https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/mpc_press_release/536717785_MPC%20Press%20Release%20-%20Meeting%20of%20December%205%202024.pdf.

[8] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[9] https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-Budget-Policy-Statement…pdf.

[10] https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-Budget-Policy-Statement…pdf.

[11] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[12] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1kenea2024003-print-pdf.ashx.

[13] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

[14] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

[15] https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/CR/2024/English/1ghaea2024004-print-pdf.ashx.

Siyaduma Biniza

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