PESA
PESA Editorial - Mozambique - 3Q2018/19

History of Conflict and its Impact on Mozambican Development

The history of political stability and conflict in Mozambique has not been generally stable and peaceful. This has disrupted the economic growth and development of the country. The first three decades of post-independent Mozambique were characterized by armed conflicts. An estimated 7 million conflict-related victims are reported[1].  From an economic perspective, the annual average growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 6.0% a year before independence. It changed to -9% in 1985 in the middle of the conflict. In 1995 the GDP growth was registered at 2.0% following the cease-fired accord signed between the belligerents. In subsequent years the growth rate had been 9.0% (2005), 7.0% (2015), 3.0% (2017) and 3.0% (2018)[2]. Meanwhile, poverty in terms of severe deprivation of water, sanitation and shelter in particular has been experienced throughout. Children being the most affected. Having no records prior to 1996, the proportion of population living below the national poverty line went from 69.0% (1996/1997), 54.0% (2002/2003), 55.0% (2009), 40.0% (2015) and 46.0% (2017/2018)[3].

In fact, the conflict erupted soon after independence, in 1975, when Resistência Nacional Moçambicana (RENAMO) opposed the ruling party Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO).  Attempts by FRELIMO to institute socialism was the point of contention. The Zimbabwean (Rhodesian) government and the apartheid regime of the South Africa were backing the RENAMO’s agenda to their own interests. The first clashes between the two sides occurred between 1976 and 1988. This resulted in over 100,000 victims[4]. The intensity of the atrocities led people to flee whenever they could. They had to abandon and separate from their families, homes and villages. Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe were destinations for most of the refugees.

Between 1980 and 1990, the country registered what is termed, “one of the world’s largest population of internally displaced – an estimated 3.5 million” in addition to over 1.5 million estimated population who sought refuge to neighbouring countries (e.g. Malawi, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and Swaziland)[5].  This implies that above a third of the total population of the country at that time was directly affected by the war. They were forced to relocate from their land and original place. The total and urban population between 1980 and 1990 ranged between 12 to 13 million.

Statistics suggest that the country emerged from civil war as “one of the most impoverished and capacity constrained countries in the world”[6]. Currently ranked 180 in Human Development Index (HDI) out of 189 countries[7]. The trend of the HDI points to a slow improvement in living conditions in Mozambique with the rates going from 0.2 in 1990 to 0.3 in 2000. The trend continued at the same rate in the early 2000s to reach 0.4 in 2010. In more recent years, the HDI has improved only slightly which shows slowing improvement in living conditions given that Mozambique’s score only increased to 0.43% in 2017[8]. At these levels the Mozambican HDI rating remains below the 0.55 threshold for low levels of development[9].

Over and above the economic situation, the country has been striving to consolidate the fragile political stability established following the peace deal signed in Rome in 1992. This has constantly been under threats. The most significant threat saw RENAMO retreating to the bush in 2013. Until recently, RENAMO had been undertaking repeated rebel’s activities in a protest against the government intention to arrest its late leader Afonso Dhlakama.  Such activities led to unrest within the rebel-controlled regions of the country. The population was compelled to flee and abandon again their families, homes and villages in search for peace and protection.

 

PESA Editorial - Mozambique Defence Armed Forces - 3Q2018/19
Mozambique Defence Armed Forces with President Filipe Nyusi

 

As events unfolded over the last five years, many Mozambicans found refuge in Zimbabwe. In 2016, a report reads “953 people arrived from Mozambique in late September, with 703 recorded in Zamuchiya, 341 in Bvuma and the rest in Fungai Amos, Zikuyumo and Gwasha”[10]. Later in the same period, more Mozambicans followed suit in the region of Tongogara in Zimbabwe. An estimated 926 registered refugees and asylum seekers[11]. In Southern Malawi, they were already over 10 thousand Mozambican refugees and asylum seekers in the Mwanza region[12]. These were joined, until the end of April 2017, by over 3,000 new comers fleeing atrocities perpetrated by the RENAMO rebels[13].

Basically, the post-independence armed conflicts in Mozambique is politically motivated. Two sides have mainly been involved namely FRELIMO and RENAMO.

PESA Editorial - Mozambique Defence Armed Forces - 3Q2018/19
Mozambique Defence Armed Forces Emblem

FRELIMO is the side that led the fight for the country’s independence against the Portuguese colonial rule under the leadership of Samora Moises Machel. Upon independence on June 25, 1975, Machel became the first President of Mozambique. He died in a plane crash in 1986 in South Africa and was subsequently succeeded by Joaquim Chissano. As a political party currently in power since independence, FRELIMO had never lost the general elections winning all five organised thus far (1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014). The organisation of the first ever multi-party general elections in 1994 signalled the beginning of a new era in the political sphere in Mozambique. It was an emerging democracy as a political system.

The President is elected by direct popular vote for a 5-year term. The Electoral System consist of two round (Run-off). The Prime Minister is appointed by the President. Members of the Assembly of the Republic are elected by direct popular vote in multi-member constituencies using the party-list proportional representation system. They serve 5-year terms[14]. Joaquim Chissano and Armando Guebuza both from FRELIMO won the elections in 1994, 1999 and 2004, 2009 respectively. Filip Nyusi, also from FRELIMO, is the current head of state elected in 2014.

RENAMO emerged in 1975 mainly from FRELIMO’s dissidents in the aftermath of the country’s independence. It was an anti-government guerrilla receiving foreign supports particularly from the apartheid regime of South Africa and white minority government in Zimbabwe (former Rhodesia). André Matsangaissa, a former senior member of the military branch of FRELIMO, took the leadership of RENAMO until his death in 1979. He was succeeded by Afonso Dhlakama who also died earlier in 2018. Dhlakama led RENAMO through a deadly civil war against FRELIMO during, particularly, the first three decades of post-independent Mozambique. RENAMO lost all five general elections to FRELIMO to date since the advent of democracy in Mozambique.

Expectations are that Mozambique consolidates peace. Political stability will have significant impact on the economic growth by bolstering confidence on stakeholders, investors in particular. Investments in various sectors will boost job creation. These, in return, will provide income which will have a positive impact on the socio-economic conditions of the country and citizens.

It has become apparent that the armed conflict had a significant impact on the economic growth and development of the country. The conflict caused an estimated 2 million deaths and around 5 million displaced both internally and outside the country. Poverty and inequality are the major legacy of the four decades of armed conflict as demonstrated above.

Reducing poverty and income inequality constitutes a priority for the Mozambique leadership. Mozambique has demonstrated a great stride in the fight against poverty despite limited peace with sporadic conflict with the RENAMO’s armed wing that is still operational in the bush.   Nevertheless, the country has recorded, over the last decade, a substantial economic growth. In fact, the country’s GDP grew by 3.7% in 2017 and the GDP per capita was calculated at USD 466.2 in the same year out of a population of 28.9 million[15]. Current economic indicators suggest 3.4% of GDP growth. All in all, the “improvement” of the political stability and the economic related activities is yet to demonstrate significant implications in the social life of ordinary citizens.  This touches particularly on the quality of education, health and social assistance to mention but a few.   It is for such a reason that, the country’s leadership, in spite of priding itself of the work accomplished thus far, acknowledges that a lot still needs to be done to impact in a meaningful way the life of its citizens whom most are considered living below the poverty line[16].

 


[1] HRW 1992. Conspicuous Destruction: War, Famine and the Reform Process in Mozambique, Human Rights Watch: New York, Washington, D. C., Los Angeles and London. Available At: https://www.hrw.org/ [Last Accessed: 30 January 2019]; Gersony, R. 1988. Summary of Mozambican Refugee Accounts of Principally Conflict-Related Experience in Mozambique, U.S. Department of State: Washington, D. C. Available At: http://images.huffingtonpost.com/ [Last Accessed: 30 January 2019]; Sundberg, R. and Melander, E. 2013. ‘Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset’, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 50, Issue 4, pp.: 523-532; Croicu, M. and Sundberg, R. 2017. UCDP GED Codebook Version 18.1, Uppsala University: Uppsala. Available At: http://ucdp.uu.se/ [Last Accessed: 17 November 2018].
[2] UNCTAD 2018. UNCTADStat Database, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development: Geneva. Available At: http://unctadstat.unctad.org [Last Accessed: 7 December 2018].
[3] WHO 2018. File: Mozambique 2.jpg, on the World Health Organisation Website, viewed on 14 December 2018 from http://www.aho.afro.who.int; World Bank 2018. Mozambique Country Profile, viewed on 14 December 2018, from http://databank.worldbank.org.
[4] Gersony, R. 1988. Summary of Mozambican Refugee Accounts of Principally Conflict-Related Experience in Mozambique, ibid.; Sundberg, R. and Melander, E. 2013. ‘Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset’, ibid.; Croicu, M. and Sundberg, R. 2017. UCDP GED Codebook Version 18.1, ibid.
[5] UNHCR 1994. UNHCR’s Operational Experience with Internally Displaced Persons, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Geneva. Available At: http://www.unhcr.org [Last Accessed: 5 October 2018]; UNHCR 2000. ‘Chapter 6: Repatriation and Peacebuilding in the Early 1990s’, in State of the World Refugees 2000: Fifty Years of Humanitarian Action, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Geneva, http://www.unhcr.org [Last Accessed: 5 October 2018].
[6] UNDP 2018a. About Mozambique, United Nations Development Programme: Mozambique Country Office, Maputo. Available At: http://www.mz.undp.org [Last Accessed :7 December 2018].
[7] UNDP 2018b. Human Development Indices and Indicators: 2018 Statistical Update, United Nations Development Programme: New York. Available At: http://hdr.undp.org/ [Last Accessed: 30 January 2019].
[8] UNDP 2018c. Mozambique: Human Development Indicators, United Nations Development Programme: New York. Available At: http://hdr.undp.org [Last Accessed: 17 December 2018].
[9] UNDP 2018d. Technical Notes: Human Development Indicators – 2018 Statistical Update, United Nations Development Programme: New York. Available At: http://hdr.undp.org/ [Last Accessed: 6 February 2019].
[10] UNHCR 2016a. Assessment Report on Mozambican Influx into Chipinge District, Zimbabwe, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Geneva. Available At: https://data2.unhcr.org [Last Accessed: 30 November 2018].
[11] UNHCR 2017. Mozambique Situation: Outflow into Zimbabwe and Malawi, Zimbabwe, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Geneva. Available At: https://data2.unhcr.org [Last Accessed: 30 November 2018].
[12] UNHCR 2016b. UNHCR Begins the Relocation of Mozambican Asylum-Seekers to Luwani Camp, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Geneva. Available At https://www.refworld.org [Last Accessed: 30 November 2018].
[13] UNHCR 2017. Mozambique Situation: Outflow into Zimbabwe and Malawi, Zimbabwe, November 2018, ibid.
[14] GoM 2019. Constituição da República, Government of Mozambique: Maputo. Available At http://www.portaldogoverno.gov.mz/  [Last Accessed: 4 February 2019].
[15] INE 2018. Statistical Yearbook, 2017, National Institute of Statistics: Maputo. Available At: http://www.ine.gov.mz/ [Last Accessed: 30 January 2019].
[16] GoM 2018. Economy, Government of Mozambique: Maputo. Available At http://www.portaldogoverno.gov.mz [Last Accessed: 17 December 2018].

 

 

 


Ken Kalala Ndalamba

Role: Research Associate
Contact: ken@politicaleconomy.org.za
Ken is a Researcher specialising in strategic management, organisational development and leadership...

Thabo Thandokuhle Sacolo

Role: Editing and Research Specialist
Contact: thabo@politicaleconomy.org.za
Thabo is an Economist specialising in applied economics, environmental economics and agricultural economist...

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